This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Carlos José García
Jorge Enrique Restrepo
Abstract

A price equation based on a model of imperfect competition was estimated using quarterly data for Chile from 1986:1 to 2001:1. The estimation includes the first difference of the dependent variable following the literature on the estimation of linear quadratic adjustment cost (LQAC) models, when the target and some of the driving variables follow I(2) processes. The equation is used to generate out-of-sample inflation forecast, of a narrower-than the-CPI price index. We can conclude from the estimation results: i) exchange-rate pass-through depends positively on economic activity (output gap) explaining why pass-through has been so low in recent years in Chile. In other words, a negative output gap has compensated the inflationary impact of exchange-rate depreciation; ii) productivity reduces unit labor costs and inflation; iii) wages and foreign prices are positively related to inflation; iv) Finally, expected inflation acceleration is significant, confirming that expectations matter determining inflation.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc128.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Claudio Sepulveda)
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 128.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:128

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda).

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kim, Ki-Ho, 1998. "US Inflation and the Dollar Exchange Rate: A Vector Error Correction Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bill Russell & Jonathan Evans & Bruce Preston, . "The Impact Of Inflation and Uncertainty On The Optimum Price Set By Firms," Discussion Papers 84, University of Dundee, Economic Studies.
  8. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  9. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. "Estimating the LQAC Model with I(2) Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 155-70, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Benabou, Roland, 1992. "Inflation and markups : Theories and evidence from the retail trade sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 566-574, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  18. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240. [Downloadable!]
  20. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher & Small, Ian, 1995. "Price, Marginal Cost and the Business Cycle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 25-41, February.
  23. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'," Studies in Economics 0605, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan Kearns & Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin Cowan, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: lessons from Australia and Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 185, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: the Abandonment of the Band and the Floating Experience," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 67-94, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005089, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rodrigo Cerda & Aldo Lema, 2003. "Desalineamientos Monetarios, Desalineamientos Cambiarios e Inflación," Documentos de Trabajo 243, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ara Volkan & Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2007/6, Turkish Economic Association, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  10. Domac, Ilker, 2004. "Explaining and forecasting inflation in Tukey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3287, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, . "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  16. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación en el Marco de Metas de Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 198, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All RePEc services are meant to be be free forever, as they are all run by volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-5.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.