IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling investment behavior in developing countries : an application to Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Shafik, Nemat

Abstract

The economic literature on investment has been characterized by considerable controversy, even by the standards of economists. A number of different, often overlapping, models of investment determination have been hypothesized and the empirical evidence has done little to clarify which, if any, are accurate representations of the way in which capital formation occurs in the economy. This paper suggests some methodological innovations in modelling aggregate investment behavior. A theoretical framework for analyzing investment decisions that takes into account some of the structural features of a developing economy is presented. Starting from the firm's optimization problem, an aggregate investment function is derived that reflects the results of a survey of decision-making in fifty private sector firms in Egypt. The model is then tested at the macroeconomic level using new econometric techniques that have emerged in the recent literature on stationarity testing and cointegration. The relationship between investment and an array of government policies is highlighted in the econometric analysis. The conclusions, both methodological and empirical, are also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Shafik, Nemat, 1990. "Modeling investment behavior in developing countries : an application to Egypt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 452, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1990/06/01/000009265_3960929214332/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robin Marris & Adrian Wood (ed.), 1971. "The Corporate Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-01110-0.
    2. Malinvaud, Edmond, 1982. "Wages and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Dale Jorgenson, 1967. "The Theory of Investment Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Determinants of Investment Behavior, pages 129-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    6. Salmon, Mark H, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 615-629, September.
    7. Anderson, G J, 1981. "A New Approach to the Empirical Investigation of Investment Expenditures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 88-103, March.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    9. Fazzari, Steven M & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Investment, Financing Decisions, and Tax Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 200-205, May.
    10. Behrman, Jere R, 1972. "Sectoral Investment Determination in a Developing Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 825-841, December.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Jenkinson, T J, 1986. "Testing Neo-Classical Theories of Labour Demand: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 241-251, August.
    13. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    14. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    15. Vahid F. Nowshirvani, 1971. "A Modified Adaptive Expectations Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 116-119.
    16. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-239, August.
    17. Dailami, Mansoor, 1989. "Policy changes that encourage private business investment in Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 266, The World Bank.
    18. Robert Ferber, 1967. "Determinants of Investment Behavior," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ferb67-1, March.
    19. Fry, Maxwell J., 1980. "Saving, investment, growth and the cost of financial repression," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 317-327, April.
    20. Bilsborrow, Richard E, 1977. "The Determinants of Fixed Investment by Manufacturing Firms in a Developing Country," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 697-717, October.
    21. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    22. Chhibber, Ajay & Shafik, Nemat, 1990. "Does devaluation hurt private investment? The Indonesian case," Policy Research Working Paper Series 418, The World Bank.
    23. Bean, Charles R, 1981. "An Econometric Model of Manufacturing Investment in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 106-121, March.
    24. James G. Witte & Jr., 1963. "The Microfoundations of the Social Investment Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 441-441.
    25. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1989. "Private investment and macroeconomic adjustment : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 339, The World Bank.
    26. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    27. Salmon, Mark, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Research Papers 269151, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    28. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    29. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "Public finance and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 31, The World Bank.
    30. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-129, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Badawi, 2003. "Private capital formation and public investment in Sudan: testing the substitutability and complementarity hypotheses in a growth framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 783-799.
    2. Atolia, Manoj, 2007. "Trade liberalization and rising wage inequality in Latin America: Reconciliation with HOS theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 467-494, April.
    3. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 361-372.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chhibber, Ajay & Shafik, Nemat, 1990. "Does devaluation hurt private investment? The Indonesian case," Policy Research Working Paper Series 418, The World Bank.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    3. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1991. "Consommation privée et endettement public en Italie et en Belgique : existe-t-il une relation stable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 79-121.
    4. Mohammad Ahmed, 1992. "Pakistan's Exchange Rate Policy: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 49-74.
    5. Azuma, Yoshiaki & Nakao, Takeo, 2009. "Why the saving rate has been falling in Japan," MPRA Paper 62581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
    7. M. Ryan Haley & Harry J. Paarsch, 2004. "The stochastic implications of rent maximization: an application to stumpage rates for timber in British Columbia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 25-48.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Auguste Mpacko Priso, 1998. "Une évaluation de l'importance des anticipations boursières des experts," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 49-61.
    10. Noel D. Uri, 1998. "The Impact of Energy on the Adoption of Conservation Tillage in the United States," Energy & Environment, , vol. 9(5), pages 549-568, August.
    11. Noel D. Uri, 1996. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Agricultural Employment in the United States," Energy & Environment, , vol. 7(1), pages 57-74, February.
    12. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
    13. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    14. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    15. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Walch, Florian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2011. "Tax Losses and Firm Investment: Evidence from Tax Statistics," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48699, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. James Davidson, 2013. "Cointegration and error correction," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 165-188, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Devadoss, Stephen, 1994. "Cointegration Results Of Farm Incomes And Production Costs In U.S. Agriculture," A.E. Research Series 305121, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    20. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System: Evidence from Australian Treasury Securities," Working Paper Series 35, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.