A Risk-Driven Approach to Exchange-Rate Modelling
AbstractThe paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.Length: 25 pages
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 57.
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2011
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exchange rate modelling; sovereign credit default risk; CDS spread; international parities; equilibrium exchange rate;
Other versions of this item:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-10-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2011-10-09 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2011-10-09 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-10-09 (Transition Economics)
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