Methodological aspects of time series back-calculation
AbstractThis paper provides the theoretical and operational framework for estimating past values of relevant time series starting from a (limited) information set. We consider a general approach that includes as special cases time series aggregation and temporal and/or spatial disaggregation problems. Furthermore, we explore the relevant problems and the possible solutions associated with a retropolation exercise, evidencing that linear models could be the preferred representation for the production of the needed data. The methodology is designed with a focus on economic time series but it could be considered even for other statistical areas. An empirical example is presented: we analyze the back-calculation of Eu15 Industrial Production Index comparing our approach with the Eurostat official one.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2006_56.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Postal: Cannaregio, S. Giobbe no 873 , 30121 Venezia
Web page: http://www.unive.it/dip.economia
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benchmarking; retropolation; historical reconstruction; back-forecasting; missing past values; aggregation; disaggregation.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
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