Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran

Contents:

Author Info

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper focuses on internal and external factors, which influence the inflation rate in developing countries. A monetary model of inflation rate, capable of incorporating both monetary and fiscal policies as well as other internal and external factors, was developed and tested on Iranian data. It was found that, over the long run, a higher exchange rate leads to a higher price and that the fiscal policy is very effective to fight inflation. The major factors affecting inflation in Iran, over the long run, are internal rather than external. However, over the short run, the sources of inflation are both external and internal.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www1.carleton.ca/economics/ccms/wp-content/ccms-files/cep06-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 06-03.

    as in new window
    Length: 50 pages
    Date of creation: 15 Mar 2006
    Date of revision: Nov 2006
    Publication status: Published: Revised version in Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 17, No. 5 (November 2006), pp. 879–903
    Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:06-03

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa Ontario, K1S 5B6 Canada
    Phone: 1-613-520-3744
    Fax: 1-613-520-3906

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Demand for money; inflation; fiscal and monetary policies; external and internal factors;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "The problem of inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Cardia, Emanuela & Kozhaya, Norma & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. " Distortionary Taxation and Labor Supply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 350-73, June.
    3. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 113, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1980. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," NBER Working Papers 0432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
    7. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    8. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
    9. Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-39, November.
    10. Hueng, C. James, 1999. "Money demand in an open-economy shopping-time model: an out-of-sample-prediction application to Canada," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 489-503.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    12. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    13. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    14. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
    15. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    16. McNelis, Paul D., 1987. "Indexing, exchange rate policy and inflationary feedback effects in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1107-1117, August.
    17. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
    18. Guidotti, Pablo E, 1993. "Currency Substitution and Financial Innovation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 109-24, February.
    19. Giannaros, Demetrios S. & Kolluri, Bharat R., 1985. "Deficit spending, money, and inflation: Some international empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 401-417.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
    21. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 147-64, January.
    22. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2004. "The effect of foreign income on economic performance of a small-open economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 483-488.
    23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    24. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
    25. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1998. "Government Expenditures and the Permanent-Income Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 719-730, July.
    26. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
    27. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia, 1996. "Optimal Government Spending in a Business Cycle Model," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 44, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    28. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    29. Bradley, Michael D., 1986. "Government spending or deficit financing: which causes crowding out?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 203-214, August.
    30. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    31. W. Michael Cox, 1983. "Government Revenue from Deficit Finance," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 264-74, May.
    32. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
    33. Edmund Sheehey, 1979. "On the measurement of imported inflation in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 68-80, March.
    34. Ahmed, Shaghil & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1995. "Fiscal Trends in Real Economic Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 985-1001, November.
    35. Ashra, Sunil & Chattopadhyay, Saumen & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2004. "Deficit, money and price: the Indian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 289-299, April.
    36. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
    37. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    38. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1997. "Intratemporal Substitution And Government Spending," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 605-609, November.
    39. Baydur, Cem Mehmet & Suslu, Bora, 2004. "The view of Sargent and Wallace on monetary policy: tight monetary policy does not stop inflation: an evaluation of CBRT's monetary policy for 1987-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 191-208, February.
    40. Neyapti, Bilin, 2004. "Fiscal decentralization, central bank independence and inflation: a panel investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 227-230, February.
    41. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    42. Meltzer, Allan H, 1977. "Anticipated Inflation and Unanticipated Price Change: A Test of the Price-Specie Flow Theory and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 182-205, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza & Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Mohammadi, Teymour, 2014. "The Effect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Inflation in Iran," MPRA Paper 55827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:06-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Renee Lortie).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.