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Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran

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Abstract

This paper focuses on internal and external factors, which influence the inflation rate in developing countries. A monetary model of inflation rate, capable of incorporating both monetary and fiscal policies as well as other internal and external factors, was developed and tested on Iranian data. It was found that, over the long run, a higher exchange rate leads to a higher price and that the fiscal policy is very effective to fight inflation. The major factors affecting inflation in Iran, over the long run, are internal rather than external. However, over the short run, the sources of inflation are both external and internal.

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  • Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:06-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    2. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and its implications for macroeconomic aggregates: The case of Uganda," Research Series 113615, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    3. Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
    4. Pilbeam, K. & Litsions, I., 2015. "The long-run determination of the real exchange rate. Evidence from an intertemporal modelling framework using the dollar-pound exchange rate," Working Papers 15/19, Department of Economics, City University London.
    5. Boonman, Tjeerd & Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Modelling the trade balance between the northern and southern eurozone using an intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2017. "The long-run determination of the real exchange rate. Evidence from an intertemporal modelling framework using the dollar-pound exchange rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1011-1028, November.
    7. Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza & Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Mohammadi, Teymour, 2014. "The Effect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Inflation in Iran," MPRA Paper 55827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.
    8. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda," Research Reports 102489, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    9. Kia, Amir & Jafari, Mahboubeh, 2020. "Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2018. "Long-run determination of the nominal exchange rate in the presence of national debts: Evidence from the yen-dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 18/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
    11. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2014. "Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2014.
    12. Esfandiar Jahangard & Arian Daneshmand & Mehdi Tekieh, 2017. "Oil prices and the real exchange rate in Iran: an ARDL bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(15), pages 1051-1056, September.
    13. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2019. "The Role Of National Debts In The Determination Of The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1182-1195, April.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    16. Litsios, Ioannis, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and equity prices: Evidence from the UK," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 115-128.
    17. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "The nexus between public expenditure and inflation in the Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28493, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Demand for money; inflation; fiscal and monetary policies; external and internal factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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