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Impact Of Real Interest Rates On Real Output Growth In India: A Long-Run Analysis In A Liberalized Financial Regime

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  • HRUSHIKESH MALLICK

    (Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram 695011, Kerala, India)

  • SHASHI AGARWAL

    (Development Planning Centre of the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), Delhi 110007, India)

Abstract

The study attempts to evaluate the impact of short-term real interest rate on growth rate in India in a liberalized financial and trade regime (March 1993 to March 2005). Using ARDL approach to cointegration of Pesaran and Shin (1999), the study finds that interest rate does not have a direct impact; rather, it may have an indirect and adverse impact on growth rate through the transmission channel of bank credit, thereby neither supporting the arguments advocated by Keynesians nor the explanations offered by the proponents of Financial Liberalization School. This incredible result may be attributed to the poor quality of credit disbursal of the banking system in India or low credit offtake for productive investment purposes as investment, an important determinant of economic growth, is governed by several other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hrushikesh Mallick & Shashi Agarwal, 2007. "Impact Of Real Interest Rates On Real Output Growth In India: A Long-Run Analysis In A Liberalized Financial Regime," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(02), pages 215-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:52:y:2007:i:02:n:s021759080700266x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021759080700266X
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    3. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    5. Kunal Sen, 2002. "Trade Policy, Equipment Investment and Growth in India," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 317-331.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    3. Shabnam Sazma Bano, 2018. "The Dynamic Relationship between Real Interest Rate and Investment: An Empirical Analysis for Selected Pacific Island Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 131-141.
    4. Lee, Chin, 2013. "The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Malaysian Post Recession Growth," MPRA Paper 44808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Qi-An Chen & Fangzhou Du, 2017. "Hedging Of Credit Derivatives, Systematic Fluctuation And Banking Stability In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 809-836, September.
    6. Gulay, Emrah & Duru, Okan, 2020. "Hybrid modeling in the predictive analytics of energy systems and prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    7. Changjun Zheng & Probir Kumar Bhowmik & Niluthpaul Sarker, 2019. "Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: A Comparative Analysis of ARDL and VECM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Maslov, Alexander, 2011. "Inflationary Handicap Of The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence From Russia," MPRA Paper 50036, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2012.

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