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Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Alvarez Diaz

    (Universidad de Vigo)

  • Gonzalo Caballero Miguez

    (Universidad de Vigo)

  • Baltasar Manzano González

    (Universidad de Vigo)

  • José M. Martín Moreno

    (Universidad de Vigo)

Abstract

The Great Recession has implied a strong increase of the unemployment rate in Spain that surpassed 25% in 2012, the highest rate in western economies in that year. At the same time, the assessment of political situation has greatly deteriorated. The goal of this paper is to study how the assessment of political situation has moved along the business cycle in Spain over the last twenty years by using a battery of statistical methods. Moreover, this study also investigates the existence of a long-run relationship applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Once the existence of a long-run relationship is evidenced, we construct a model that allows us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the business cycle on the Spanish political situation. The empirical findings reveal that the unemployment rate has had a significant lagged impact on the assessment of political situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Alvarez Diaz & Gonzalo Caballero Miguez & Baltasar Manzano González & José M. Martín Moreno, 2015. "Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series Analysis," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 213(2), pages 41-62, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2015:v:213:i:2:p:41-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2016. "La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 39(110), pages 112-125, Mayo.
    3. Remedios Ramón-Dangla, 2019. "Reforma económica laboral vs. coyuntura económica: el impacto del Fondo de Garantía Salarial sobre las finanzas espanolas," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(1), pages 85-100, February.
    4. Pérez-Moreno, Salvador & Bárcena-Martín, Elena & Ritzen, Jo, 2017. "Institutional diversity in the Euro area : Any evidence of convergence?," MERIT Working Papers 2017-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Mercedes Mareque & Elena Rivo-López & Mónica Villanueva-Villar & Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2019. "Audit Opinions: Are They Really Different for Family Businesses?," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    6. Aurel Burciu & Rozalia Kicsi & Ionel Bostan, 2020. "Social Trust and Dynamics of Capitalist Economies in the Context of Clashing Managerial Factors with Risks and Severe Turbulence: A Conceptual Inquiry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-28, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic crisis; political situation; Spain; cross-correlation; Granger causality; the ARDL bounds testing approach.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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