Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Dmitri Koustas

Abstract

The persistence of U.S. unemployment has risen with each of the last three recessions, raising the specter that future U.S. recessions might look more like the Eurosclerosis experience of the 1980s than traditional V-shaped recoveries of the past. In this paper, we revisit possible explanations for this rising persistence. First, we argue that financial shocks do not systematically lead to more persistent unemployment than monetary policy shocks, so these cannot explain the rising persistence of unemployment. Second, monetary and fiscal policies can account for only part of the evolving unemployment persistence. Therefore, we turn to a third class of explanations: propagation mechanisms. We focus on factors consistent with four other cyclical patterns which have evolved since the early 1980s: a rising cyclicality in long-term unemployment, lower regional convergence after downturns, rising cyclicality in disability claims, and missing disinflation. These factors include declining labor mobility, changing age structures, and the decline in trust among Americans. To determine how these factors affect unemployment persistence, this paper exploits regional variation in labor market outcomes across Western Europe and North America during 1970-1990, in contrast to most previous work focusing either on cross-country variation or regional variation within countries. The results suggest that only cultural factors can account for the rising persistence of unemployment in the U.S., but the evolution in mobility and demographics over time should have more than offset the effects of culture.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19600.pdf
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19600.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dmitri Koustas, 2013. "Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 193-260.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19600

Note: EFG LS ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2013. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2011. "Trust in public institutions over the business cycle," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 13/1, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  6. Gregory, Mary & Jukes, Robert, 2001. "Unemployment and Subsequent Earnings: Estimating Scarring among British Men 1984-94," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F607-25, November.
  7. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2005. "Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why So Different?," NBER Working Papers 11278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
  10. Olivier Coibion, 2011. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," NBER Working Papers 17034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mark Duggan & Scott A. Imberman, 2009. "Why Are the Disability Rolls Skyrocketing? The Contribution of Population Characteristics, Economic Conditions, and Program Generosity," NBER Chapters, in: Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly, pages 337-379 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Andreas I. Mueller & Jesse Rothstein & Till M. von Wachter, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  15. Laurence M. Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 17044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2013. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 19136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend, Cross-Sectional Evidence," Working Papers 015, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  18. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Roland, Gérard, 2010. "Culture, Institutions and the Wealth of nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 19598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Richard W. Johnson & Barbara Butrica, 2012. "Age Disparities in Unemployment and Reemployment During the Great Recession and Recovery," Issue Briefs 2012-03, Urban Institute, Program on Retirement Policy.
  21. Robert E. Hall, 2013. "The routes into and out of the zero lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  22. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality In The United States, 1913-1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 1-39, February.
  23. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Policy Options for the Social Security Disability Insurance Program," Reports 43421, Congressional Budget Office.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 19598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Setterfield, 2013. "Using Interest Rates as the Instrument of Monetary Policy: Beware Real effects, Positive Feedbacks, and Discontinuities," Working Papers 1320, Trinity College, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.