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Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information

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  • Boneva, Lena
  • Fawcett, Nicholas
  • Masolo, Riccardo M.
  • Waldron, Matt

Abstract

How did DSGE model forecasts perform before, during and after the financial crisis, and what type of off-model information can improve the forecast accuracy? We tackle these questions by assessing the real-time forecast performance of a large DSGE model relative to statistical and judgmental benchmarks over the period from 2000 to 2013. The forecasting performances of all methods deteriorate substantially following the financial crisis. That is particularly evident for the DSGE model’s GDP forecasts, but augmenting the model with a measure of survey expectations made its GDP forecasts more accurate, which supports the idea that timely off-model information is particularly useful in times of financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:100-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.005
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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 175, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Gelain, Paolo & Manganelli, Simone, 2020. "Monetary policy with judgment," Working Paper Series 2404, European Central Bank.
    4. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    5. Chris Murphy, 2020. "Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 252-270, September.

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