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Incorporating judgement with DSGE models

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Author Info
Jaromír Beneš
Andrew Binning
Kirdan Lees (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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Abstract

Central bank policymakers often cast judgement about macroeconomic forecasts in reduced form terms, basing this on off-model information that is not easily mapped to a structural DSGE framework. We show how to compute forecasts conditioned on policymaker judgement that are the most likely conditional forecasts from the perspective of the DSGE model, thereby maximising the influence of the model structure on the forecasts. We suggest using a simple implausibility index to track the magnitude and type of policymaker judgement. This is based on the structural shocks required to return policymaker judgement. We show how to use the methods for practical use in the policy environment and also apply the techniques to condition DSGE model forecasts on: (i) the long history of published forecasts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand; (ii) constant interest rate forecasts; and (iii) inflation forecasts from a Bayesian VAR currently used in the policy environment at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/discusspapers/dp08_10.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2008/10.

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Length: 22 p.
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/10

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Related research
Keywords: DSGE models; monetary policy; conditional forecasts;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 180, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  2. Pedro Alvarez-Lois & Richard Harrison & Laura Piscitelli & Alasdair Scott, 2005. "Taking DSGE models to the policy environment," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laseen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "An estimated New Keynesian small open economy model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Taking DSGE models to the policy environment by Alvarez-Lois, Harrison, Piscitelli and Scott," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2453-2459, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
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  13. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Christopher A. Sims, 2006. "Improving Monetary Policy Models," Working Papers 74, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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