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Forecasting Using Predictive Likelihood Model Averaging

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Author Info
George Kapetanios () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Vincent Labhard () (Bank of England)
Simon Price () (Bank of England and City University)

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Abstract

Recently, there has been increasing interest in forecasting methods that utilise large datasets. We explore the possibility of forecasting with model averaging using the out-of-sample forecasting performance of various models in a frequentist setting, using the predictive likelihood. We apply our method to forecasting UK inflation and find that the new method performs well; in some respects it outperforms other averaging methods.

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File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/doc/wp567.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 567.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp567

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting Inflation Bayesian model averaging Akaike criterion Forecast combining

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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This page was last updated on 2008-10-2.


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