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Consumption and population age structure

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Author Info
Erlandsen, Solveig (Norges Bank)
Nymoen, Ragnar () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
Abstract

In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in empirical consumption functions. Our findings suggest that they should. By analysing Norwegian quarterly time series data we find that changes in the age distribution of the population have significant and life cycle consistent effects on aggregate consumption. Furthermore, controlling for age structure effects stabilizes the other parameters of the consumption function and reveals significant real interest rate effects. Simulation experiments show that the numerical effect on the savings rate of age structure changes is substantial when the indirect effects via wealth and income are accounted for.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 27/2004.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2004_027

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Related research
Keywords: Consumption; demography; savings; time series models; cointegration.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  5. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  6. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
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  10. Horioka, C.Y., 1992. "The Impact of the Age structure of the Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan : A Cointegration Analysis," Papers 287, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R & Samiei, Hossein, 1996. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 1368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer.
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