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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability

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  • Sucarrat, Genaro

Abstract

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternative framework is needed. The contribution of this study is twofold. First, the finite sample properties of operational and practical procedures for the forecast evaluation of explanatory discrete time models of financial return variability are studied. Second, with basis in the simulation results a simple framework is proposed and illustrated. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-18.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7263

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Keywords: Return variability forecasting; financial volatility; explanatory modelling;

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  1. Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
  2. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
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Cited by:
  1. BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, . "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2234, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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