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Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú

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  • Winkelried, Diego

Abstract

Un fenómeno ampliamente documentado es la disminución del efecto traspaso del tipo de cambio a la inflación en la mayoría de países industrializados y en algunas economías emergentes. Una explicación macroeconómica, que ha ganado popularidad al explicar esta regularidad, es que una tasa de inflación baja y estable induce una disminución del efecto traspaso. Mediante el análisis de un modelo VAR estructural, este artículo presenta evidencia sobre una reducción similar del efecto traspaso en el Perú, hacia inicios de la década del 2000. Se argumenta que la adopción de un régimen creíble de inflación baja ha sido fundamental para reducir el traspaso del tipo de cambio.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 23 ()
Pages: 9-24

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-23-01

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  1. Winkelried, Diego, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Working Papers 2011-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Renzo Rossini & Marco Vega, 2007. "The monetary policy transmission mechanism under financial dollarization: the case of Peru 1996-2006," Working Papers 2007-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Winkelried, Diego, 2003. "¿Es asimétrico el pass-through en el Perú?: Un análisis agregado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
  4. Adolfson, Malin, 2002. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Working Paper Series 136, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Vega, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," MPRA Paper 838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Winkelried, Diego, 2011. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio a la inflación," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 148, pages 4-7.
  8. Alessandro Flamini, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IHEID Working Papers 04-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  9. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  10. Todd E. Clark, 1996. "The responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks," Research Working Paper 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Yelena Takhtamanova, 2008. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2008-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  13. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
  15. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  16. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  17. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
  18. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
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