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On The Identification and Estimation of Partially Nonstationary ARMAX Systems

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  • D. S. Poskitt

Abstract

This paper extends current theory on the identification and estimation of vector time series models to nonstationary processes. It examines the structure of dynamic simultaneous equations systems or ARMAX processes that start from a given set of initial conditions and evolve over a given, possibly infinite, future time horizon. The analysis proceeds by deriving the echelon canonical form for such processes. The results are obtained by amalgamating ideas from the theory of stochastic difference equations with adaptations of the Kronecker index theory of dynamic systems. An extension of these results to the analysis of unit-root, partially nonstationary (cointegrated) time series models is also presented, leading to straightforward identification conditions for the error correction, echelon canonical form. An innovations algorithm for the evaluation of the exact Gaussian likelihood is given and the asymptotic properties of the approximate Gaussian estimator and the exact maximum likelihood estimator based upon the algorithm are derived. Examples illustrating the theory are discussed and some experimental evidence is also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • D. S. Poskitt, 2004. "On The Identification and Estimation of Partially Nonstationary ARMAX Systems," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-20
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2004/wp20-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARMAX; partially nonstationary; Kronecker index theory identification.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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