German Exports to the Euro Area - A Cointegration Approach
AbstractThis paper analyses the determinants of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. Four conditional error-correction models based on regionally disaggregated data are developed. One specification includes EMU industrial production and a real external value based on consumer prices, the other three use different EMU investment aggregates, the corresponding real external values and a proxy for European market integration to explain exports. The models perform equally well in a number of diagnostic tests. For short-term forecasts, however, the model using industrial production seems to be the best, since it outperforms the other models in terms of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts. Furthermore, the explanatory variables of this equation (industrial production and consumer prices) are easier to forecast than investment aggregates and the corresponding prices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 06-2005.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Export Function; Income and Price Elasticity of Exports; Intra-EMU Trade; Error Correction Model; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-02-17 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-02-17 (Forecasting)
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