German Exports to the Euro Area
AbstractThe growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both simulations and short-term forecasts. However, the equation systematically underestimates the export demand for data from 1999 onwards, indicating that German exports have greatly benefited from the introduction of the European Monetary Union--a special effect, that is not considered in the structural equation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 286.
Length: 31 p.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Export Demand; Income and Price Elasticities; Intra-EMU Trade; Error Correction Model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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