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German Exports to the Euro Area

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Author Info
Sabine Stephan
Abstract

The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both simulations and short-term forecasts. However, the equation systematically underestimates the export demand for data from 1999 onwards, indicating that German exports have greatly benefited from the introduction of the European Monetary Union--a special effect, that is not considered in the structural equation.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38642.de/dp286.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 286.

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Length: 31 p.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp286

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Related research
Keywords: Export Demand; Income and Price Elasticities; Intra-EMU Trade; Error Correction Model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro-zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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