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Determinants of exports in the G7-countries

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  • Lapp, Susanne
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Solveen, Ralph

Abstract

Real effective exchange rates and economic activity in trading partner countries have a considerable impact on real exports of the G7-countries. Using an errorcorrection framework we find that the short-run and the long-run effects differ substantially between the countries. The relative importance of both influences is demonstrated in a simulation with standardized shocks. For five countries, the effects are more or less the same; in Japan, however, the exchange rate effect dominates the effect stemming from foreign economic activity, the opposite is true for France. Finally, exchange rate volatility does not systematically affect export growth in the majority of the countries.

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  • Lapp, Susanne & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1995. "Determinants of exports in the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 707, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:707
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    1. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    1. Lapp, Susanne & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1996. "Vor einer Besserung der Konjunktur in den Industrieländern," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1672, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Should the European Central Bank worry about exchange rates?," Kiel Working Papers 800, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Manh Ha Duong & Camille Logeay & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener & Serhiy Yahnych, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of Germany ; Version March 2005," Data Documentation 5, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8, January.
    5. Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2000. "Euroland: Strong upswing, risks to price level stability," Kiel Discussion Papers 359, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Aufschwung in den Industrieländern verstärkt sich bei expansiver Geldpolitik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1708, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Clostermann, Jörg, 1996. "The impact of the exchange rate on Germany's balance of trade," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,07e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Viviana A. Alfonso-Corredor & Enrique Montes-Uribe & María A. Prieto-Sánchez & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución de los precios y cantidades de las principales exportaciones agrícolas de Colombia diferentes al café," Borradores de Economia 1100, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Sabine Stephan, 2005. "German Exports to the Euro Area - A Cointegration Approach," IMK Working Paper 06-2005, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
    11. Hubert Strauß, 2001. "Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 434-449.
    12. Lapp, Susanne & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1996. "Konjunkturelle Wende in den Industrieländern," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1679, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Strauß Hubert, 2003. "Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 176-203, April.
    14. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Industrieländer: fortgesetzter Aufschwung bei niedriger Inflation," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1700, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Döpke, Jörg & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Gottschalk, Jan & Langfeldt, Enno & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Strauß, Hubert, 1998. "Euroland: New conditions for economic policy," Kiel Discussion Papers 326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Strauß, Hubert, 2000. "Eingleichungsmodelle zur Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels," Kiel Working Papers 987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Strauß, Hubert, 1998. "Verhaltener Produktionsanstieg in den Industrieländern," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1788, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Lapp, Susanne & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1995. "Industrieländer: moderater Porduktionsanstieg bei nur geringer Unterauslastung der Kapazitäten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1663, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Before EMU starts: economic policy stimulates recovery in Europe," Kiel Discussion Papers 294, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Konjunktur in den Industrieländern gewinnt an Schwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1717, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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