Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ester Ruiz

    ()
    (Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • Fernando Lorenzo

    (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Uruguay. Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE-Uruguay))

Abstract

In this paper we model the monthly number of passengers flying with the Spanish airline IBERIA from January 1985 to December 1992 and predict future values of the series up to October 1994. This series is characterized by strong seasonal variations and by having an upward trend which has a rupture during 1990 with the slope changing to be negative. We compare observed values with predictions made by a deterministic components model, the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing filter, an ARIMA model and a structural time series model. As expected, we show that the deterministic components model is too rigid in the presence fo breaks in trends although surprisingly the within-sample fit is better than for any of the other models considered. With respect to Holt-Winters predictions, they fail because they are not able to acommodate outliers. Finally, ARIMA and structural models are shown to have very similar prediction performance, being very flexible to predict reasonably well when there are changes in trend and outliers.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://decon.edu.uy/publica/1998/Doc0298.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0298.

as in new window
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0298

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Constituyente 1502, 6to piso, CP 11200, Montevideo
Phone: (598) 2410-6449
Fax: (598) 2410-6450
Email:
Web page: http://www.fcs.edu.uy/subcategoria.php?SubCatId=48&CatId=53
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: ARIMA models; Breaks in trends; Deterministic components; Holt-Winters algorithm; Outliers; Intervention analysis; Structural time series models; Unobserved components models.;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 299-307, October.
  4. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  5. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  6. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Maravall, Agustin, 1985. "On Structural Time Series Models and the Characterization of Components," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 350-55, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Irene Musio) or (Héctor Pastori).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.