IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/475.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Econometric Modelling of Changing Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • David Hendry
  • Grayham E. Mizon

Abstract

We model expenditure on food in the USA, using an extended time series. Even when a theory is essentially 'correct', it can manifest serious mis-specification if just fitted to data, ignoring its observed characteristics and major external events such as wars, recessions and policy changes. When the same theory is embedded in a general framework embracing dynamics and structural breaks, it performs well even over an extended data period, as shown using Autometrics with impulse-indicator saturation. Although this particular illustration involves a simple theory, the point made is generic, and applies no matter how sophisticated the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2010. "Econometric Modelling of Changing Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 475, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:96964701-a182-4867-89b1-5f229fc93ac0
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Plummer & Matthew Tonts, 2013. "Do History and Geography Matter? Regional Unemployment Dynamics in a Resource-Dependent Economy: Evidence from Western Australia, 1984–2011," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(12), pages 2919-2938, December.
    2. Pinto, Hugo, 2011. "The role of econometrics in economic science: An essay about the monopolization of economic methodology by econometric methods," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 436-443, August.
    3. Yulia Tyumeneva & Yulia Kuzmina, 2012. "The Effect of One Extra Year of Schooling on Pisa Results: a Case of Countries with Different Tracking Systems," HSE Working papers WP BRP 08/EDU/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric modelling; Food expenditure; Structural breaks; Impulse-indicator saturation; Autometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.