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Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano

Author

Listed:
  • Bustamante, Rafael
  • Morales, Fedor

Abstract

La condición de Marshall-Lerner establece que las depreciaciones reales incrementan las exportaciones netas. Sin embargo, existe evidencia empírica de que una depreciación real puede conducir al deterioro de las cuentas externas en el corto plazo, situación que al revertirse en el tiempo forma una Curva J. En este trabajo se analiza la evidencia empírica de la Condición de Marshall-Lerner y la Curva-J en la economía peruana durante el período 1991-2008 usando datos trimestrales. Las variables consideradas son: Balanza comercial, el tipo de cambio real bilateral, el producto bruto interno y; las importaciones mundiales, como variable aproximada del ingreso del resto del mundo. Siguiendo a Breitung (2000) y Juselius (2006), la metodología utilizada es la de VAR Cointegrados (CVAR), que se emplea con la finalidad de conocer si existe alguna relación de largo plazo entre las series en estudio y al mismo tiempo estudiar los mecanismos de transmisión entre dichas series. Se encuentra que se satisface la condición de Marshall-Lerner y se rechaza la existencia de la Curva-J para la economía peruana. Finalmente, se encuentra que los determinantes a largo plazo de la balanza comercial peruana son: el tipo de cambio real y las importaciones mundiales, excluyéndose de dicha relación el producto bruto interno. Clasificación JEL: F11, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Bustamante, Rafael & Morales, Fedor, 2009. "Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 103-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-16-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    3. Boris A. Luna Acevedo, 2011. "La apreciación del tipo de cambio y su efecto en la balanza comercial. Caso boliviano (2006 - 2008)," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 15(2), pages 45-96, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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