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Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano

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  • Bustamante, Rafael
  • Morales, Fedor

Abstract

La condición de Marshall-Lerner establece que las depreciaciones reales incrementan las exportaciones netas. Sin embargo, existe evidencia empírica de que una depreciación real puede conducir al deterioro de las cuentas externas en el corto plazo, situación que al revertirse en el tiempo forma una Curva J. En este trabajo se analiza la evidencia empírica de la Condición de Marshall-Lerner y la Curva-J en la economía peruana durante el período 1991-2008 usando datos trimestrales. Las variables consideradas son: Balanza comercial, el tipo de cambio real bilateral, el producto bruto interno y; las importaciones mundiales, como variable aproximada del ingreso del resto del mundo. Siguiendo a Breitung (2000) y Juselius (2006), la metodología utilizada es la de VAR Cointegrados (CVAR), que se emplea con la finalidad de conocer si existe alguna relación de largo plazo entre las series en estudio y al mismo tiempo estudiar los mecanismos de transmisión entre dichas series. Se encuentra que se satisface la condición de Marshall-Lerner y se rechaza la existencia de la Curva-J para la economía peruana. Finalmente, se encuentra que los determinantes a largo plazo de la balanza comercial peruana son: el tipo de cambio real y las importaciones mundiales, excluyéndose de dicha relación el producto bruto interno. Clasificación JEL: F11, F14

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 103-126

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-16-04

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Boris A. Luna Acevedo, 2011. "La apreciación del tipo de cambio y su efecto en la balanza comercial. Caso boliviano (2006 - 2008)," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 15(2), pages 45-96, December.

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