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An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC

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  • Miller, Thomas W.
  • Rapach, David E.
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    Abstract

    We analyze the intra-week evolution of bookie-quoted National Football League betting lines in New York City and its implications for market efficiency. Our unique data set includes three sequential lines: (i) an outlaw line set by a single agent at the beginning of the week; (ii) Tuesday's opening line shaped by bets from a group of eight to ten agents; and (iii) a game-time closing line shaped by the wider public. While forecast encompassing tests show that information content increases during the betting week, consistent with a reasonably well-functioning market, we also uncover significant evidence of pricing inefficiencies relating to sentiment measures. In addition, actual bets made by a number of professional gamblers appear profitable, pointing to the existence of superior analysts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 10-23

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:10-23

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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    Keywords: Market efficiency; National Football League; Outlaw line; Forecast encompassing; Sentiment; Superior analysts;

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