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Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games

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Author Info

  • Roger C. Vergin

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Michael Scriabin

    (Simon Fraser University)

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    Abstract

    An attempt was made to develop profitable strategies for betting on National Football League games. The research was based on the hypothesis that biases exist in the setting of pointspeads and that these biases can be detected and used for profitable wagering. An analysis of 1969-1974 data suggests that biases of several types do exist and that they are of sufficient magnitude to allow profitable betting strategies despite the normal five percent betting fee.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.24.8.809
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 24 (1978)
    Issue (Month): 8 (April)
    Pages: 809-818

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:24:y:1978:i:8:p:809-818

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    Cited by:
    1. Daniel Kuester & Shane Sanders, 2011. "Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 116-122, January.
    2. Quitzau, Jörn, 2005. "Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant," Research Notes 18, Deutsche Bank Research.
    3. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    4. Adi Schnytzer, 2011. "The Prediction Market for the Australian Football League," Working Papers 2011-15, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    5. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    6. Bryan Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Sarah Amundson, 2006. "Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284.
    7. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
    8. Mark Burkey, 2005. "On "Arbitage" and Market Efficiency: An Examination of NFL Wagering," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 36(1), pages 13-28.
    9. Quitzau, Jörn & Vöpel, Henning, 2009. "Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08," HWWI Research Papers 1-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    10. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & J. Weinbach, 2003. "Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 236-242, June.
    11. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.

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