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The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo

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  • Jonathan Aylen
  • Kevin Albertson
  • Gina Cavan

Abstract

Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21 °C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70 % of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Aylen & Kevin Albertson & Gina Cavan, 2014. "The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 183-197, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:2:p:183-197
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1261-6
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    Cited by:

    1. David R. Perkins, 2021. "Thermal Environments and Visitor Attendance in Zoological Parks: Observations in A Humid Continental Climate," Journal of Tourismology, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 195-225, December.
    2. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2021. "Weather derivatives to mitigate meteorological risks in tourism management: An empirical application to celebrations of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain)," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 591-613, June.
    3. Luca Zamparini & Anna Serena Vergori & Serena Arima, 2017. "Assessing the determinants of local tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 981-992, August.
    4. Cindy C. Yañez & Francesca M. Hopkins & William C. Porter, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 707-721, September.

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