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The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows

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Author Info

  • Jaume Rosselló Nadal

    ()
    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))

  • Antoni Riera Font

    ()
    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))

  • Vivian Cardenas

    (PhD student of the Program of Tourism and Environmental Economics)

Abstract

Climate can be understood both as a resource and a motivation for tourism. This study focuses on the second issue trying to establish the sensitivity to weather anomalies of the outbound flows from United Kingdom, the third biggest international tourist spender country. Using transfer function models it is possible to analyze the significance of the short-term weather conditions in the determination of outbound British flows and simulate the effects of different climate change scenarios. Results show how mean temperature, heat waves, air frost and sunshine days are the weather variables that can be significantly related to the dynamics of the outbound British flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra") in its series CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) with number 2008/3.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in 'Documents de Treball CRE', 2008, pages 1-16
Handle: RePEc:pdm:wpaper:2008/3

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cre.sanostra.es

Related research

Keywords: Tourism; weather anomalies; climate change; transfer function modeling; United Kingdom.;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
  4. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  6. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate On Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers FNU-55, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Oct 2004.
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