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The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study

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Author Info

  • Andrea Bigano
  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth.The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern is robust, however. Climate change is more important to tourism than is sea level rise, because the latter heavily affects only a few places where beach nourishment is a viable option.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/htm12wp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-58.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision: Jan 2005
Publication status: Published, Integrated Assessment Journal, 7 (1), 25-49
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:58

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Related research

Keywords: Climate change; international tourism; domestic tourism;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
  2. Gossling, Stefan, 1999. "Ecotourism: a means to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem functions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-320, May.
  3. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July.
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  6. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  7. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Yuan Zhou, 2005. "A Global Database of Domestic and International Tourist Numbers at National and Subnational Level," Working Papers 2005.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008. "Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
  2. Richard S. J. Tol & Sharon Walsh, 2012. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Arctic Circle," Working Paper Series 5212, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  3. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Eu-Us Open Skies Agreement On International Travel And Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Papers FNU-134, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007.
  4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
  7. Angel Bujosa & Jaume Rosselló, 2013. "Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 363-375, March.
  8. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
  9. Maria Carmen Iordache & Iuliana Cebuc, 2009. "Analysis of the impact of climate change on tourism in some European countries," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 270-286, November.
  10. John FitzGerald & Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Airline emissions of carbon dioxide in the European trading system," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(1), pages 51-54, 04.
  11. Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello, 2007. "Estimating a Climate Change Damage Function through General Equilibrium Modeling," Working Papers 2007_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  12. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Uk Aviation Tax On Carbon Dioxide Emissions And Visitor Numbers," Working Papers FNU-131, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007.
  14. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  15. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
  16. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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