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The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study

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Author Info
Andrea Bigano
Jacqueline M. Hamilton
Richard S.J. Tol () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth.The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern is robust, however. Climate change is more important to tourism than is sea level rise, because the latter heavily affects only a few places where beach nourishment is a viable option.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/htm12wp.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-58.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision: Jan 2005
Publication status: Published, Integrated Assessment Journal, 7 (1), 25-49
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:58

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Phone: +49 40 42838 6593
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Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
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Related research
Keywords: Climate change; international tourism; domestic tourism;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Yuan Zhou, 2005. "A Global Database of Domestic and International Tourist Numbers at National and Subnational Level," Working Papers 2005.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism In Germany, The Uk And Ireland: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-115, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. John FitzGerald & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System," Papers WP179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Eu-Us Open Skies Agreement On International Travel And Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Papers FNU-134, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  9. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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