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Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Change: A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism

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Author Info

  • Roberto Roson

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

  • Francesco Bosello

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Milan)

  • Andrea Bigano

    ()
    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (-) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows - which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions - triggers GDP losses ranging from (-) 0.5% in Small Island States to (-) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2008_06.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2008_06

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Keywords: Climate change; Sea level rise; Tourism; Computable General Equilibrium Models;

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References

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  1. Oliver Deke & Kurt Georg Hooss & Christiane Kasten & Gernot Klepper & Katrin Springer, 2001. "Economic Impact of Climate Change: Simulations with a Regionalized Climate-Economy Model," Kiel Working Papers 1065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
  4. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Richard S.J. Tol & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2000. "How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do? Recent Estimates," Working Papers FNU-2, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2000.
  6. Daniel Scott & Geoff McBoyle, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in the ski industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(8), pages 1411-1431, October.
  7. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
  8. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
  9. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2005. "The Impact of Climate on Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers 2005.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  10. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Double Trade-Off Between Adaptation And Mitigation For Sea Level Rise: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-48, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
  11. Paulo A.L.D. Nunes & Margaretha Breil & Gretel Gambarelli, 2005. "Economic Valuation of On Site Material Damages of High Water on Economic Activities based in the City of Venice: Results from a Dose-Response-Expert-Based Valuation Approach," Working Papers 2005.53, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  12. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
  13. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  14. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  15. Richard S.J. Tol & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2000. "How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 1(4), pages 179-206, October.
  16. W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  17. Roberto Roson & Richard s.J. Tol, 2003. "An Integrated Assessment Model Of Economy-Energy-Climate – The Model Wiagem: A Comment," Working Papers FNU-26, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2003.
  18. R K Turner & N Adger & P Doktor, 1995. "Assessing the economic costs of sea level rise," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 27(11), pages 1777-1796, November.
  19. Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
  20. Alessandra Goria & Gretel Gambarelli, 2004. "Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy," Working Papers 2004.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  21. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  22. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard S.J. Tol, 2001. "On Climate Change And Economic Growth," Working Papers FNU-10, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2002.
  23. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
  2. Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices," Working Papers 2013.104, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2012. "Climate Change, Tourism and Water Resources in the Mediterranean:a General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  4. Bosello, Francesco & Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D. & Ding, Helen & Rosa, Renato, 2011. "The economic assessment of changes in ecosystem services: and application of the CGE methodology," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(1).
  5. Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2011. "Weather and Individual Happiness," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-01-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Mar 2012.
  6. Lecocq, Franck & Hallegatte, Stéphane & De Perthuis, Christian, 2011. "Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policies : An Economic Framework," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7780, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Gabriele Standardi & Francesco Bosello & Fabio Eboli, 2014. "A Sub-national CGE Model for Italy," Working Papers 2014.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
  9. Stasinopoulos, Georgios, 2009. "Economic impacts of climate change on cities: A survey of the existing literature," HWWI Policy Papers 1-18, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

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