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Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth.The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/cgehealthwp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-57.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision: Dec 2004
Publication status: Published, Ecological Economics, 58, 579-591
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:57

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Related research

Keywords: Impacts of climate change; human health; computable general equilibrium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
• D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
• Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

References

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13. Govindaraj, Ramesh & Chellaraj, Gnanaraj & Murray, Christopher J. L., 1997. "Health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 157-169, January.
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