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Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes

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  • Martens, W. J. M.
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    Abstract

    One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate change is a change in mortality related to thermal stress. In this paper, existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estimates are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBF-3SX5H61-15/2/095d34ddb16539a15ab2f6814c8686b8
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Social Science & Medicine.

    Volume (Year): 46 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 (February)
    Pages: 331-344

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:46:y:1998:i:3:p:331-344

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    Related research

    Keywords: climate change thermal stress mortality changes;

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    Cited by:
    1. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers FNU-57, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2004.
    2. Alan Barreca, 2009. "Climate Change, Humidity, and Mortality in the United States," Working Papers 0906, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2009.
    3. P. Link & Richard Tol, 2011. "Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 287-304, January.
    4. Baulcomb, Corinne, 2011. "Review of the Evidence Linking Climate Change to Human Health for Eight Diseases of Tropical Importance," Working Papers 131463, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    5. Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton, . "06-05 Can Climate Change Save Lives? A comment on “Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health”," GDAE Working Papers 06-05, GDAE, Tufts University.
    6. Baulcomb, Corinne, 2011. "Review of the Evidence Linking Climate Change to Human Health for Eight Diseases of Tropical Importance," Working Papers 131463, Scottish Agricultural College, Land Economy Research Group.
    7. Mark R. Cullen & Clint Cummins & Victor R. Fuchs, 2012. "Geographic and Racial Variation in Premature Mortality in the US: Analyzing the Disparities," NBER Working Papers 17901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Matthias Ruth, 2003. "Modeling Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Systems: Methodology and Application to Metropolitan Boston," ERSA conference papers ersa03p400, European Regional Science Association.

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