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Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health

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  • Francesco Bosello

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Roberto Roson

    (Ca’Foscari University of Venice and International Centre for Theoretical Physics)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Hamburg University, Vrije Universiteit and Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change)

Abstract

We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2005.97.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.97

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Keywords: Impacts of climate change; Human health; Computable general equilibrium;

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References

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  1. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  2. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
  3. W. Kip Viscusi & Joseph E. Aldy, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," NBER Working Papers 9487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gbesemete, Kwame P. & Gerdtham, Ulf-G., 1992. "Determinants of health care expenditure in Africa: A cross-sectional study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 303-308, February.
  5. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-38, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  6. Blomqvist, A. G. & Carter, R. A. L., 1997. "Is health care really a luxury?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-229, April.
  7. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 1991. "Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 227-234, July.
  8. Warwick McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stegman, 2004. "Long Run Projections For Climate Change Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2004-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. Chima, Reginald Ikechukwu & Goodman, Catherine A. & Mills, Anne, 2003. "The economic impact of malaria in Africa: a critical review of the evidence," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 17-36, January.
  11. Govindaraj, Ramesh & Chellaraj, Gnanaraj & Murray, Christopher J. L., 1997. "Health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 157-169, January.
  12. Di Matteo, Livio & Di Matteo, Rosanna, 1998. "Evidence on the determinants of Canadian provincial government health expenditures: 1965-1991," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 211-228, April.
  13. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
  14. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  15. Martens, W. J. M., 1998. "Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 331-344, February.
  16. Getzen, Thomas E., 2000. "Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 259-270, March.
  17. Thomas Heinzow & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Estimates Of The External And Sustainability Costs Of Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-32, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  18. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
  19. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Hitiris, Theo & Posnett, John, 1992. "The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-181, August.
  21. repec:reg:wpaper:282 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
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