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A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism

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Author Info

  • Maria Berrittella
  • Andrea Bigano
  • Roberto Roson
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/cgetourismwp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-49.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision: Nov 2004
Publication status: Published, Tourism Management, 27 (5), 913-924
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:49

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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Tourism;

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References

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  1. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
  2. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
  4. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  6. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  7. Bosello, Francesco & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 579-591, June.
  8. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Papers 118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  9. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
  10. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  11. Hanslow, Kevin, 2000. "A General Welfare Decomposition for CGE Models," GTAP Technical Papers 498, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  12. Oliver Deke & Kurt Georg Hooss & Christiane Kasten & Gernot Klepper & Katrin Springer, 2001. "Economic Impact of Climate Change: Simulations with a Regionalized Climate-Economy Model," Kiel Working Papers 1065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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