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A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

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Author Info
Andrea Bigano (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centre for Economic Studies, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
Maria Berrittella (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, "La Sapienza" University and University of York)
Roberto Roson (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia)
Richard S.J. Tol (Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, and Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University)

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Abstract

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2004.127.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2004.127

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Related research
Keywords: Climate change; Computable general equilibrium models; Tourism;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hanslow, Kevin, 2000. "A General Welfare Decomposition for CGE Models," GTAP Technical Papers 498, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello & Marco Lazzarin & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers 2004.96, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  7. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers 2005.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Oliver Deke & Kurt Georg Hooss & Christiane Kasten & Gernot Klepper & Katrin Springer, 2001. "Economic Impact of Climate Change: Simulations with a Regionalized Climate-Economy Model," Kiel Working Papers 1065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrea Bigano & Alessandra Goria & Jacqueline Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism," Working Papers 2005.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change," Papers WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2007. "Climate Change, Energy Demand and Market Power in a General Equilibrium Model of the World Economy," Working Papers 2007.71, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers FNU-57, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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