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Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND

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Author Info

  • P. Michael Link
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

Climate change can lead to a substantial reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the world oceans. This is often thought to have severe consequences particularly on the North Atlantic region and Northern and Western Europe. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the extent of these impacts. The results indicate that, owing to a slower warming (rather than cooling) of the regions most affected by a thermohaline circulation collapse, climate change induced damages in these regions would be smaller in case of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even with a thermohaline circulation collapse, the total and marginal impacts of climate change are negative.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/Link_Working_Paper_FNU-42.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-42.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision: Apr 2004
Publication status: Published, Portuguese Economic Journal, 3, 99-114
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:42

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Related research

Keywords: climate change; climate change impacts; thermohaline circulation; integrated assessment;

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References

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  1. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Economic impacts of changes in population dynamics of fish on the fisheries in the Barents Sea," Working Papers FNU-30, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2003.
  2. Klaus Keller & Kelvin Tan & Francois M.M. Morel & David F. Bradford, 2000. "Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002.
  4. Tol, Richard S. J., 2001. "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
  5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies To Reduce Vulnerability To Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-12, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2002.
  6. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
  7. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  8. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
  9. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July.
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