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The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application of FUND

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  • David Anthoff

    ()

  • Richard Tol

Abstract

The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalences (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For comparable welfare economic assumptions as the Stern Review, we calculate lower changes in BGE between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model FUND than the Stern Review found with the model PAGE. We find that optimal mitigation policies give even lower changes in BGE and argue that those policy choices should be the focus of the research effort rather than total damage estimates. Sensitivity analyses show that the Stern Review chose parameters that imply high impact estimates. However, for regionally disaggregated welfare functions, we find changes in BGE that are orders of magnitude higher than the results from the Stern Review, both for total damage as for optimal policy analysis. With regional disaggregation and high risk aversion, fat tails and with that very high welfare losses emerge.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10640-009-9269-5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 351-367

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:43:y:2009:i:3:p:351-367

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

Related research

Keywords: Impacts of climate change; Balanced growth equivalent; Stern Review; D63; Q54;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Snorre Kverndokk & Eric Nævdal & Linda Nøstbakken, 2013. "The Trade-off between Intra- and Intergenerational Equity in Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4285, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Simon Dietz & Geir B. Asheim, 2011. "Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37578, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
  4. Simon Dietz & David Maddison, 2009. "New Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 295-306, July.
  5. Simon Dietz, 2011. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 519-541, October.
  6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2013. "Bootstraps for Meta-Analysis with an Application to the Impact of Climate Change," Working Paper Series 6413, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  7. Linus Mattauch & Felix Creutzig & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "Avoiding Carbon Lock-In: Policy Options for Advancing Structural Change," Working Papers 1, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin, revised Feb 2012.
  8. Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann, 2011. "Renewable Energy Subsidies: Second-Best Policy or Fatal Aberration for Mitigation?," Working Papers 2011.48, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Armon Rezai, 2011. "The Opportunity Cost of Climate Policy: A Question of Reference," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 885-903, December.
  10. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
  11. Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Jason Lowe & Michael Mastrandrea & Malte Meinshausen & Detlef Vuuren, 2012. "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 897-917, August.
  12. Stephen Newbold & Adam Daigneault, 2009. "Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 351-377, November.

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