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The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced-Growth-Equivalent: An Application of FUND

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  • David Anthoff

    () (International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg, Germany)

  • Richard S. J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalences (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For comparable welfare economic assumptions as the Stern Review, we calculate lower changes in BGE between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model FUND than the Stern Review found with the model PAGE. We find that optimal mitigation policies give even lower changes in BGE and argue that those policy choices should be the focus of the research effort rather than total damage estimates. Sensitivity analyses show that the Stern Review chose parameters that imply high impact estimates. However, for regionally disaggregated welfare functions, we find changes in BGE that are orders of magnitude higher than the results from the Stern Review, both for total damage as for optimal policy analysis. With regional disaggregation and high risk aversion, fat tails and with that very high welfare losses emerge.

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File URL: http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20080312111902/WP228.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP228.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp228

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Keywords: Impacts of climate change; balanced growth equivalent; Stern Review;

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  23. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
  2. Simon Dietz & Geir B. Asheim, 2011. "Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 42, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  3. Simon Dietz & David Maddison, 2009. "New Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 295-306, July.
  4. Simon Dietz, 2011. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 519-541, October.
  5. Stephen Newbold & Adam Daigneault, 2009. "Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 351-377, November.
  6. Linus Mattauch & Felix Creutzig & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "Avoiding Carbon Lock-In: Policy Options for Advancing Structural Change," Working Papers 1, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin, revised Feb 2012.
  7. Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann, 2011. "Renewable Energy Subsidies: Second-Best Policy or Fatal Aberration for Mitigation?," Working Papers 2011.48, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Armon Rezai, 2011. "The Opportunity Cost of Climate Policy: A Question of Reference," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 885-903, December.

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