Infinite Uncertainty, Forgotten Feedbacks, And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Policy
AbstractTol (2003) found evidence that the uncertainty that surrounds estimates of the marginal damage of climate change may be infinite even if total damages are finite and questioned the applicability of expected cost-benefit analysis to global mitigation policy. Yohe (2003) suggested that this problem could be alleviated if international development aid were directed at eliminating the source of the problem – climate induced negative growth rates in a few regions along a handful of troublesome scenarios. The hypothesis about adding a second policy lever to the climate policy calculus is shown to hold, but not as robustly as perhaps expected. Infinite uncertainty and its implications for global mitigation policy can be avoided for a reasonable price in the relatively unlikely event that climate change can cause negative economic growth in a region or two when the portfolio of international policies includes at least two tools.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-83.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision: Aug 2005
Publication status: Published, Climatic Change, 83, 429-442
climate policy; development aid; equity weighting; expected cost-benefit analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Richard S.J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe, 2005. "Infinite Uncertainty, Forgotten Feedbacks, And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Policy," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2005-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-03-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2007-03-24 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
- P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
- Richard Tol, 1999. "Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 33-49, July.
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
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