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Can Climate Change Save Lives? A comment on “Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health

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  • Frank Ackerman
  • Elizabeth Stanton

Abstract

In a recent article in this journal, Francesco Bosello, Roberto Roson, and Richard Tol make the surprising prediction that the first stages of global warming will, on balance, save a large number of lives. Bosello et al. fail to substantiate this remarkable estimate, and they make multiple mistaken or misleading assumptions. They rely on research that identifies a simple empirical relationship between temperature and mortality, but ignores the countervailing effect of human adaptation to gradual changes in average temperature. While focusing on small changes in average temperatures, they ignore the important health impacts of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes. They extrapolate this pattern far beyond the level that is apparently supported by their principal sources, and introduce an arbitrary assumption that may bias the result toward finding benefits from warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, "undated". "Can Climate Change Save Lives? A comment on “Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," GDAE Working Papers 06-05, GDAE, Tufts University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dae:daepap:06-05
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    File URL: http://www.bu.edu/eci/files/2020/01/06-05ClimateHealth.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan M. Harris & Neva R. Goodwin, "undated". "Reconciling Growth and Environment," GDAE Working Papers 03-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
    2. Jonathan M. Harris, "undated". "Macroeconomic Policy and Sustainability," GDAE Working Papers 01-09, GDAE, Tufts University.
    3. David Dapice, "undated". "Current Economic Conditions in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Growth," GDAE Working Papers 03-04, GDAE, Tufts University.
    4. Bosello, Francesco & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 579-591, June.
    5. Neva R. Goodwin, "undated". "Five Kinds of Capital: Useful Concepts for Sustainable Development," GDAE Working Papers 03-07, GDAE, Tufts University.
    6. Frank Ackerman & Timothy A. Wise & Kevin P. Gallagher & Luke Ney & Regina Flores, "undated". "Free Trade, Corn, and the Environment: Environmental Impacts of US – Mexico Corn Trade Under NAFTA," GDAE Working Papers 03-06, GDAE, Tufts University.
    7. Gallagher, Kevin P. & Aguayo, Francisco, 2003. "Economic Reform, Energy, and Development: The Case of Mexican Manufacturing," Working Papers 15575, Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute.
    8. Aguayo, Francisco & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2005. "Economic reform, energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 829-837, May.
    9. Frank Ackerman & Ian J. Finlayson, 2006. "The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 509-526, September.
    10. Martens, W. J. M., 1998. "Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 331-344, February.
    11. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
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