05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"
AbstractComputable general equilibrium (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization, now make much more modest forecasts than they did just a few years ago. The estimated benefits are not only small in the aggregate, but also skewed toward developed countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alleviation is extremely limited. Related calculations, for the expected benefits of services liberalization, trade facilitation measures, and long-term productivity gains from trade liberalization, remain problematical and/or speculative. The empirical limitations of CGE forecasts rest on broader theoretical weaknesses: the models are largely locked within a static framework, and remarkably assume that trade policy causes no changes in total employment, up or down. Models built on more adequate theories, which have only begun to appear, would paint a very different picture of the effects of trade liberalization.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by GDAE, Tufts University in its series GDAE Working Papers with number 05-01.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005.
"Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3607, The World Bank.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, January.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-17, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Frank Ackerman, 2001. "Still dead after all these years: interpreting the failure of general equilibrium theory," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 119-139.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007.
"How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- William R. Cline, 2004. "Trade Policy and Global Poverty," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 379.
- J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003.
"Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
- Francois, Joseph & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries Under the Doha Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 4032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Tokarick, 2005. "Who Bears the Cost of Agricultural Support in OECD Countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 573-593, 04.
- Antoine Bouët & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2004.
"Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round,"
2004-18, CEPII research center.
- Antoine Bou�t & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, 09.
- Jean-Christophe Bureau & Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral agricultural trade liberalization: The contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the Doha Round," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp060, IIIS.
- Krugman, Paul R, 1987. "Is Free Trade Passe?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 131-44, Fall.
- Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002.
"Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
- Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2000. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View From Trade," NBER Working Papers 7941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Oslington, 2005. "Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1139-1155, 08.
- Andrew H. Charlton & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2005. "A Development-friendly Prioritisation of Doha Round Proposals," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 293-312, 03.
- J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
- Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round," Working Papers 489, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Maoz, Yishay & Peled, Dan & Sarid, Assaf, 2009.
"Trade Agreements, Bargaining and Economic Growth,"
17064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Drogue, Sophie & Bartova, Lubica, 2007. "A Critical Survey of Databases on Tariffs and Trade Available for the Analysis of EU Agricultural Agreements," Working Papers 7287, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Martin, William J. & Anderson, Kym, 2006.
"The Doha Agenda and Agricultural Trade Reform: The Role of Economic Analysis,"
2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia
25628, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2007. "The Doha agenda and agricultural trade reform: the role of economic analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 77-87, December.
- Femenia, Fabienne & Alexandre, Gohin, 2009.
"Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes,"
2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China
51665, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2011. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1950-1958, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erin Coutts).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.