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05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"

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Frank Ackerman

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Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization, now make much more modest forecasts than they did just a few years ago. The estimated benefits are not only small in the aggregate, but also skewed toward developed countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alleviation is extremely limited. Related calculations, for the expected benefits of services liberalization, trade facilitation measures, and long-term productivity gains from trade liberalization, remain problematical and/or speculative. The empirical limitations of CGE forecasts rest on broader theoretical weaknesses: the models are largely locked within a static framework, and remarkably assume that trade policy causes no changes in total employment, up or down. Models built on more adequate theories, which have only begun to appear, would paint a very different picture of the effects of trade liberalization.

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Paper provided by GDAE, Tufts University in its series GDAE Working Papers with number 05-01.

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  1. Krugman, Paul R, 1987. "Is Free Trade Passe?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 131-44, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Tokarick, 2005. "Who Bears the Cost of Agricultural Support in OECD Countries?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 573-593, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew H. Charlton & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2005. "A Development-friendly Prioritisation of Doha Round Proposals," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 293-312, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Francois, Joseph & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries Under the Doha Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 4032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Antoine Bouet & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sebastien Jean, 2004. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," Working Papers 2004-18, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Paul Oslington, 2005. "Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(8), pages 1139-1155, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round," Working Papers 489, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frank Ackerman, 2002. "Still dead after all these years: interpreting the failure of general equilibrium theory," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 119-139, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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