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Multilateral agricultural trade liberalization: The contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the Doha Round

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Author Info
Jean-Christophe Bureau
Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean

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Abstract

An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalization in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labor market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies that have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developed countries with a high level of aggregation have been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalization. Regions like sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns group members. Classification-

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp060.

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Date of creation: 20 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp060

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Keywords: CGE model; Doha Round; agriculture; tariff preferences; domestic support.;

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  1. Lionel Fontagne & Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets?," Working Papers 2004-04, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Huan-Niemi, E. & Niemi, J., 2008. "Empirical analysis of agricultural trade between EU and China: Explanation behind China's growing agrifood imports," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43962, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alan Matthews & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2005. "EU Agricultural Policy: What Developing Countries Need to Know," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp91, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alan Matthews & Hannah Chaplin & Thomas Giblin & Marian Mraz, 2007. "Strengthening Policy Coherence for Development in Agricultural Policy: Policy Recommendations to Irish Aid," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp188, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  4. Susan Senior Nello, 2007. "Winners and Losers from World Agricultural Trade Liberalisation," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round," Economics Working Papers 041, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Li, Naichia & Roe, Terry L., 2006. "Validating Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Forecasts," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21325, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2006. "Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa," MPRA Paper 1851, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Antimiani, Alessandro & Conforti, Piero & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "Assessing Market Access: Do Developing Countries Really Get a Preferential Treatment?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07036, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Alan Matthews & Tom Giblin, 2006. "Policy Coherence, Agriculture and Development," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp112, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  10. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Hewitt, Joanna, 2008. "Impact evaluation of research by the International Food Policy Research Institute on agricultural trade liberalization, developing countries, and WTO's Doha negotiations:," Impact assessments 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  12. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region with specific reference to preferential trade agreements - scenario and impact analysis," Publication STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Allan Rae & Mia Mikic (ed.), AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, chapter 4 Trade Policy Section, Trade and Investment Division, UNESCAP. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jayatilleke S. Bandara, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3107, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada.. [Downloadable!]
  14. Antimiani, Alessandro & Conforti, Piero & Salvatici, Luca, 2005. "Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round," Working Papers 18878, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Frank Ackerman, . "05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  16. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 2006. "Consequences of price volatility in evaluating the benefits of liberalisation," MPRA Paper 4467, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alessandro Antimiani & Piero Conforti & Luca Salvatici, 2008. "Measuring Restrictiveness of Bilateral Trade Policies: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 207-224, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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