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Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round

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  • Antoine Bouët
  • Jean-Christophe Bureau
  • Yvan Decreux
  • Sébastien Jean

Abstract

An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalization in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labor market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies that have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developed countries with a high level of aggregation have been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalization. Regions like sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns group members. Classification-

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2004-18.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-18

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Related research

Keywords: CGEM; Doha; Agriculture; Tariffs; FDI; Models; International trade models and databases; Trade negotiations;

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  1. Lionel Fontagné & Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets?," Working Papers 2004-04, CEPII research center.
  2. Lionel Fontagné & Jean-Louis Guérin & Sébastien Jean, 2003. "Market Access Liberalisation in the Doha Round: Scenarios and Assessment," Working Papers 2003-12, CEPII research center.
  3. Hervé Boulhol, 2004. "Technology Differences, Institutions and Economic Growth: a Conditional Conditional Convergence," Working Papers 2004-02, CEPII research center.
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