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Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round

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Author Info
Drusilla K. Brown (Tufts University)
Alan V. Deardorff (University of Michigan)
Robert M Stern (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94 on the major industrialized and developing countries/regions. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $73.0 billion. The developed countries overall have an estimated welfare gain of $53.8 billion, and the developing countries an estimated welfare increase of $19.2 billion. We have also simulated the effects of assumed 33 percent reductions in trade barriers in the ongoing Doha Development Round. There is an estimated increase in global welfare of $574.0 billion. There is a global welfare decline of $3.1 billion from agricultural liberalization due primarily to the assumed reductions in export subsidies. There are global welfare gains of $163.4 billion from reductions in manufactures tariffs and $413.7 billion from reductions in services barriers. All of the countries/regions covered in the Michigan Model show overall welfare increases, with the largest absolute gains going to the developed countries.

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Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 489.

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Length: 31 Pages
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:489

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Bernard M. Hoekman & Will Martin, 2002. "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 113-140.
  2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
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  3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1996. "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 31-52. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104. [Downloadable!]
  8. J. Michael Finger & Julio J. Nogués, 2002. "The Unbalanced Uruguay Round Outcome: The New Areas in Future WTO Negotiations," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 321-340, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank Ackerman, . "05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2007. "Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes using Meta-Analysis," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 67, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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