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Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round

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  • Drusilla K. Brown

    (Tufts University)

  • Alan V. Deardorff

    (University of Michigan)

  • Robert M Stern

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94 on the major industrialized and developing countries/regions. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $73.0 billion. The developed countries overall have an estimated welfare gain of $53.8 billion, and the developing countries an estimated welfare increase of $19.2 billion. We have also simulated the effects of assumed 33 percent reductions in trade barriers in the ongoing Doha Development Round. There is an estimated increase in global welfare of $574.0 billion. There is a global welfare decline of $3.1 billion from agricultural liberalization due primarily to the assumed reductions in export subsidies. There are global welfare gains of $163.4 billion from reductions in manufactures tariffs and $413.7 billion from reductions in services barriers. All of the countries/regions covered in the Michigan Model show overall welfare increases, with the largest absolute gains going to the developed countries.

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File URL: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers476-500/r489.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 489.

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Length: 31 Pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:489

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Postal: ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN 48109
Web page: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/
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  1. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  2. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104.
  3. Finger, J. Michael & Nogues, Julio J., 2001. "The unbalanced Ururguay Round outcome : the new areas in future WTO negotiations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2732, The World Bank.
  4. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0001, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  5. Thomas W. Hertel & Bernard M. Hoekman & Will Martin, 2002. "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(1), pages 113-140.
  6. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1996. "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 31-52.
  8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Cited by:
  1. John Whalley, 2003. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalization in Services Trade," NBER Working Papers 10181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Ben Goodrich, 2003. "More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs," Policy Briefs PB03-08, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Frank Ackerman, . "05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University.

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