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Cold- and heat-related mortality: a cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change

Author

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  • Veronika Huber

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Dolores Ibarreta

    (European Commission - Joint Research Center, Edificio EXPO)

  • Katja Frieler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 °C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronika Huber & Dolores Ibarreta & Katja Frieler, 2017. "Cold- and heat-related mortality: a cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 407-418, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1956-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1956-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ali Ahmadalipour & Hamid Moradkhani & Mukesh Kumar, 2019. "Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 569-579, March.
    3. Annabelle Workman & Grant Blashki & Kathryn J. Bowen & David J. Karoly & John Wiseman, 2018. "The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Raimi, Daniel, 2021. "Effects of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality: A Literature Review to Inform Updated Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon," RFF Working Paper Series 21-12, Resources for the Future.
    5. Thomas Longden, 2018. "Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 343-375, October.

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