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The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

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Author Info
Andrea Bigano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
Jacqueline M. Hamilton (Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science)
Richard S.J. Tol (Hamburg University, Vrije Universiteit and Carnegie Mellon University)

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Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2006.86.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.86

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Related research
Keywords: Climate Change; International Tourism; Domestic Tourism;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Yuan Zhou, 2005. "A Global Database of Domestic and International Tourist Numbers at National and Subnational Level," Working Papers 2005.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism In Germany, The Uk And Ireland: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-115, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of A Carbon Tax On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-120, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. John FitzGerald & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System," Papers WP179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Eu-Us Open Skies Agreement On International Travel And Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Papers FNU-134, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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