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Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System

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Author Info
John FitzGerald () (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))
Richard S.J. Tol () (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

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Abstract

A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of including carbon dioxide emissions from aviation fuels in the European Trading System. The effect on global carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation is minimal: -0.01% at current permit prices, and ?0.13% for the aggressive climate policy advocated by the Stern Review. In the latter case, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels would fall by 0.004%, and total greenhouse gas emissions by 0.002%. Tourist numbers in Europe would fall by up to 0.6%, and would increase in the rest of the world. If the permits are grandparented, the airlines would receive a subsidy of ?3 bln at current prices, and ?40 bln for the Stern policy. If permits are auctioned, the effect on the airline industry would be minimal. Including aviation in the market for emission permits has almost no effect on the environment and may have a negative effect on the economy.

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File URL: http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20070123161043/WP179.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP179.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp179

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Related research
Keywords: International tourism; tradable permit; carbon dioxide; aviation;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  4. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Colm McCarthy & Sue Scott, 2008. "Controlling the Cost of Controlling the Climate - The Irish Government’s Climate Change Strategy," Working Papers 200807, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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