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The Impact Of The Eu-Us Open Skies Agreement On International Travel And Carbon Dioxide Emissions

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Author Info

  • Karen Mayor
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/openskieswp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-134.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision: Apr 2007
Publication status: Published, Journal of Air Transport Management, 14, 1-7
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:134

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Keywords: International tourism; open skies agreement; carbon dioxide emissions;

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References

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  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin L., 2007. "Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 103-110, March.
  4. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
  5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of A Carbon Tax On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-120, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2006.
  6. James A. Brander & Anming Zhang, 1990. "Market Conduct in the Airline Industry: An Empirical Investigation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(4), pages 567-583, Winter.
  7. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Njegovan, Nenad, 2006. "Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-39.
  9. Martijn Brons & Eric Pels & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2001. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Passenger Air Travel," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-047/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  11. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
  12. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
  13. Pearce, David, 2006. "The political economy of an energy tax: The United Kingdom's Climate Change Levy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 149-158, March.
  14. Brueckner, Jan K & Spiller, Pablo T, 1994. "Economies of Traffic Density in the Deregulated Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 379-415, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Button, Kenneth, 2009. "The impact of US–EU “Open Skies†agreement on airline market structures and airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 59-71.
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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