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Abstract

We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change. The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase fast as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. The effects of climate change, however, are small compared to the baseline projections.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/htm11.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-36.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision: Jan 2004
Publication status: Published, Climate Research, 29, 255-268
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:36

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Postal: Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg
Phone: +49 40 42838 6593
Fax: +49 40 42838 7009
Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
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Related research

Keywords: International tourism; climate change impacts; carbon dioxide emissions; scenarios;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
• Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Mattia Cai & Roberto Ferrise & Marco Moriondo & Paulo A.L.D. Nunes & Marco Bindi, 2011. "Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable?," Working Papers 2011.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
2. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
   
   • Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 507-513, November.
   • Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Uk Aviation Tax On Carbon Dioxide Emissions And Visitor Numbers," Working Papers FNU-131, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007.
3. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, January -.
4. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
   
   • Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
5. Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of A Carbon Tax On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-120, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2006.
   
   • Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Working Papers 2007.34, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
   • Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
7. John FitzGerald & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System," Papers WP179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
   
   • John FitzGerald & Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Airline emissions of carbon dioxide in the European trading system," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(1), pages 51-54, 04.
8. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact Of The Eu-Us Open Skies Agreement On International Travel And Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Papers FNU-134, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007.
   
   • Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement on International Travel and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers WP191, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
9. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
10. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
11. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
    
    • Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
12. Daniel Scott & Geoff McBoyle, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in the ski industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(8), pages 1411-1431, October.
13. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
14. Andrea Bigano & Alessandra Goria & Jacqueline Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism," Working Papers 2005.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
15. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Antoni Riera Font & Vivian Cardenas, 2008. "The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2008/3, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
16. Seán Lyons & Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "The Climate Preferences of Irish Tourists by Purpose of Travel," Papers WP225, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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