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Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation

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Author Info

  • Karen Mayor

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Richard S. J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.

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File URL: http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20080716090749/WP244.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP244.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp244

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Related research

Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; international tourism; long-term forecasting; aviation;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. John FitzGerald & Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Airline emissions of carbon dioxide in the European trading system," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(1), pages 51-54, 04.
  2. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Working Papers 2007.34, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement on International Travel and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers WP191, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate On Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers FNU-55, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Oct 2004.
  8. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  9. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
  10. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
  11. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  12. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional air traffic in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traffic determinants using dynamic panel-data models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6794, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
  3. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  4. Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-178.
  5. Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du Climat.

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