Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?
AbstractThis article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. "scenario of type I") recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2°C.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2012-35.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-09-30 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-09-30 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-09-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-TRE-2012-09-30 (Transport Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Chèze, Benoit & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2012.
"Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place : new results from a macro-level approach,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/9263, Paris Dauphine University.
- Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-178.
- Benoit Cheze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: new results from a macro-level approach," Working Papers 1205, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
- Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
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