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Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

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  • Benoît Chèze
  • Julien Chevallier
  • Pascal Gastineau

Abstract

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. "scenario of type I") recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2°C.

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File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2012/WP_EcoX_2012-35.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2012-35.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-35

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Keywords: Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change;

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  1. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
  3. Benoit Cheze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: new results from a macro-level approach," Working Papers 1205, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  4. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
  5. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
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