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Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study

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Author Info
Jacqueline M. Hamilton
David J. Maddison
Richard S.J. Tol () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is smaller than for population and income changes.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/tourism_simstudy.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2003
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-31.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision: Sep 2003
Publication status: Published, Global Environmental Change, 15 (3), 253-266
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:31

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Postal: Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg
Phone: +49 40 42838 6593
Fax: +49 40 42838 7009
Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
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Related research
Keywords: Tourism demand; climate change; global model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Panayiota Lyssiotou, 2000. "Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 421-436. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers," Papers WP187, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maten A. Lau, 2004. "The Role Of Climate Information In Tourist Destination Choice Decision-Making," Working Papers FNU-56, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. John FitzGerald & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System," Papers WP179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel Scott & Geoff McBoyle, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in the ski industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(8), pages 1411-1431, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  6. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  9. Seán Lyons & Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "The Climate Preferences of Irish Tourists by Purpose of Travel," Papers WP225, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrea Bigano & Alessandra Goria & Jacqueline Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism," Working Papers 2005.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Antoni Riera Font & Vivian Cardenas, 2008. "The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2008/3, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra"). [Downloadable!]
  13. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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