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Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study

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Author Info

  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton
  • David J. Maddison
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is smaller than for population and income changes.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/tourism_simstudy.pdf
File Function: First version, 2003
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-31.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision: Sep 2003
Publication status: Published, Global Environmental Change, 15 (3), 253-266
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:31

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Related research

Keywords: Tourism demand; climate change; global model;

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References

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  1. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Panayiota Lyssiotou, 2000. "Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 421-436.
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