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“Tourism demand forecasting with different neural networks models”

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  • Oscar Claveria

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Enric Monte

    (Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Polytechnic University of Catalunya (UPC))

  • Salvador Torra

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

This paper aims to compare the performance of different Artificial Neural Networks techniques for tourist demand forecasting. We test the forecasting accuracy of three different types of architectures: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We also evaluate the effect of the memory by repeating the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags introduced. We used tourist arrivals from all the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2012. We find that multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks, being the radial basis function architecture the one providing the best forecasts when no additional lags are incorporated. These results indicate the potential existence of instabilities when using dynamic networks for forecasting purposes. We also find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long term forecasting.

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File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2013/201321.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics in its series IREA Working Papers with number 201321.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision: Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201321

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Postal: Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona
Web page: http://www.ub.edu/irea/
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Related research

Keywords: tourism demand; forecasting; artificial neural networks; multi-layer perceptron; radial basis function; Elman networks; Catalonia. JEL classification: L83; C53; C45; R11;

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  1. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
  2. Claveria, Oscar & Torra, Salvador, 2014. "Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 220-228.
  3. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
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